DAL at LV: Week 11 Prediction, Spread & Betting Edge

DAL

LV

Game Time: Monday, November 18 at 1:15 AM UTC
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

Current Betting Lines

Spread: DAL -3.5 (-110) / LV +3.5 (-110)
Total (Over/Under): 50.5 (O: -110 / U: -110)
Moneyline: DAL -192 / LV +160

Odds as of November 11, 2025 via DraftKings

Key Injuries & Impact

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys enter Week 11 relatively healthy with their core offensive weapons available. Dak Prescott continues to command the offense with CeeDee Lamb as his primary target. The offensive line has provided solid protection in recent weeks, giving Dallas's passing attack time to develop.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are managing their usual roster challenges heading into this prime-time matchup. Their defensive front remains their strength, capable of generating pressure when healthy. Questions persist at several skill positions, particularly in the passing game where consistency has been elusive.

What the Experts Are Saying

Monday Night Football in Las Vegas sets the stage for a classic AFC-NFC interconference battle, with the Cowboys installed as 3.5-point road favorites. Most analysts view Dallas as the more complete team entering this matchup, citing their offensive firepower and recent defensive improvements. The Cowboys' ability to score quickly through the air with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb gives them a significant advantage against a Raiders secondary that has struggled with explosive plays this season.

From a strategic standpoint, Dallas's balanced attack presents matchup problems for Las Vegas. The Cowboys can establish the run to control clock and create play-action opportunities deep downfield. Their defense has shown marked improvement in recent weeks, particularly in generating pressure and forcing turnovers. The Raiders, meanwhile, have searched for offensive identity throughout the season, with inconsistent quarterback play limiting their ability to sustain drives.

The total of 50.5 reflects expectations of a moderately high-scoring affair, but several experts believe this could play lower. Both teams have shown defensive capabilities when focused, and the Raiders have been involved in several grind-it-out games this year. If Dallas establishes an early lead, they'll likely milk clock and limit possessions, potentially driving the game under the total.

Sharp money appears to be leaning toward Dallas, with the spread holding steady at -3.5 despite the Cowboys getting action. The key number of 3 looms large, as many anticipate a close game decided by a field goal or less. The Monday night spotlight and Las Vegas home crowd could provide some juice for the Raiders, but the talent disparity seems significant enough for Dallas to handle the business and cover.

TiltRx Model Analysis

Win Probability: DAL 56.7% | LV 43.3%

Projected Score: DAL 26, LV 24

Key Factors:

Dallas projects as 2.1-point favorites (vs market -3.5)
Cowboys' offensive efficiency advantage in passing game
Model projects 49 total points vs market line of 50.5
Raiders' home field worth approximately 2.5 points in this matchup

Our ensemble model gives the Cowboys a 56.7% chance of winning this matchup straight up. The projected score of 26-24 in favor of Dallas suggests a competitive, close game that could come down to the final possession.

The model's 2.1-point spread projection sits below the market's -3.5, creating a potential value opportunity on the Raiders getting the points.

Weather & Venue Analysis

Stadium: Allegiant Stadium
Surface Type: Dome (Climate Controlled)

Playing indoors at Allegiant Stadium eliminates weather as a variable. The climate-controlled environment favors the more talented passing offense - typically an advantage for Dallas with their aerial weapons. However, the dome also neutralizes any wind or precipitation concerns that might have hindered the Raiders' offense, keeping this game competitive.

The Verdict

Spread Analysis: DAL -3.5

Edge: Moderate value on RAIDERS +3.5
Our model projects Dallas winning by 2.1 points (26-24), making the Cowboys -3.5 spread slightly inflated. With a projected margin under the key number of 3, taking the Raiders +3.5 offers better value. While Dallas is the more likely winner (56.7% probability), getting over a field goal with the underdog in a projected close game provides cushion.

Recommendation: RAIDERS +3.5 - The extra 1.4 points of value compared to our projection makes this the smart play.

Total Analysis: O/U 50.5

Edge: Slight value on UNDER
Our model projects 49 total points, sitting 1.5 points below the market line of 50.5. While not a massive edge, both teams have shown defensive capabilities and the Cowboys' clock-control style when leading could limit possessions.

Recommendation: UNDER 50.5 - Modest edge, but enough to warrant a play.

Moneyline Analysis

Edge: Fair value on Dallas ML
At -192 (implied probability ~66%), the Cowboys' moneyline is slightly overpriced compared to our 56.7% win probability. The spread offers better value for Cowboys backers. For Raiders backers, the +160 moneyline (implied 38.5%) also undervalues their 43.3% actual win probability.

Recommendation: If betting Dallas, take the spread. If you believe in a Raiders upset, the +160 moneyline has slight value.

Best Bets Summary

RAIDERS +3.5 (-110) - BEST BET
Model projects DAL -2.1 vs market -3.5 (1.4 points of value)
UNDER 50.5 (-110) - Moderate play
Model projects 49 total points
Raiders ML +160 - Value play for upset believers
43.3% actual win probability vs 38.5% implied

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Disclaimer

This analysis is for entertainment and informational purposes only. Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All odds and lines are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.